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*Can You Bet On The Kentucky Derby The Day Before
*Can I Bet On The Kentucky Derby The Day Before
It is the most basic question now that will not change much in the three weeks left until the Kentucky Derby. But the answer may be as capricious as a swirling wind.
Once you have decided on an online betting platform, it is time to make a wager on the Kentucky Derby. You will decide when to place the bet; just make sure it is before the window closes. Since the Kentucky Derby has the odds posted way in advance, you can wager in advance as well. However, the odds can change a lot by the time the race runs. You might be looking for a day out on the town with the big crowds wishing to watch the Kentucky Derby, in which case going out to bet on the race might be the choice for you. But for convenience’s sake, it’s hard to top betting online. The choices you have at your fingertips mean that you can get the best value for the.
How would you bet the Derby right now?
Not knowing whether the field will fill and with what horses and with jockeys trying to figure out how they are coming and going, it is not a fair question.
Nevertheless, HRN posed it to some well-known horseplayers who will be seen in a series of stories delivering their insights on betting this unique running of America’s biggest race. Although they spoke in separate telephone conversations, their comments have been grouped where they crossed common ground.
If there was a feeling that Jonathon Kinchen, Judy Wagner, Tony Zhou and David Gutfreund shared, it was not just that it was too soon for a concrete opinion. It was that they have some basic strategy in mind that are the foundation of how they will place their bets Saturday, Sept. 5.
Of course, they all took into account the heavy favorite Tiz The Law.
JONATHON KINCHEN
Winner of the 2015 NHC Tour
Double finalist in the 2016 NHC
Fox Sports/NYRA, Austin, Texas
“I’m different than the casual fan. When I go to sleep on the first Saturday in September, if Tiz The Law wins and I walk away a loser, I can handle that. A lot of people want to see the ball go through the hoop on Derby day. With that said I’m not necessarily going to bet a lot of other horses to win the Derby. What I want to do is something that most people can’t stomach doing with the Kentucky Derby because it’s a 20-horse field. That is to single Tiz The Law in multi-race bets and use other opinions in the surrounding races. If he wins and I lose money, I’m OK with that from a fan standpoint. That’s fine. That’s how I’m going to bet the race. I have not seen anyone with a bad trip, with going a mile-and-a-quarter, with a hidden pedigree, with anything that makes me believe that they can turn the tables on what I saw here (at Saratoga) on Saturday from Tiz The Law.”
TONY ZHOU
Five times in National Horseplayers Championship
Analytics player, professional quantitative analyst
New York
“The Derby is probably going to have one of the most solid lines out there. It’s kind of like the Super Bowl. Everyone is analyzing lines and players. All that money whips the market into shape unless you have some public darling horse. Typically with that much money flowing into the pool, the lines are going to be pretty solid. I never view the Kentucky Derby as a great betting proposition. But it’s just a great race to watch.”
JUDY WAGNER
Winner of the 2001 NHC
Member of the Louisiana Racing Commission
New Orleans
“I feel this year’s 3-year-old crop overall is not as strong, but that may be because I can’t tell you four or five 3-year-olds that I feel I’m excited about for the Derby. I loved seeing Tiz The Law. I really was concerned about him when they turned for home last week in the Travers. But all doubt was removed very quickly, especially by the sixteenth pole.”
DAVID GUTFREUND
Winner of the 2018 NHC Tour
15-time NHC player
Las Vegas
“The Derby is a unique race unto itself because the field size. You just don’t get that in any other races. The one thing about the Derby this year is the Kentucky horses all ran at Ellis Park last week. The New York horses ran in the Belmont and the Travers. For the most part the west-coast horses have stayed out on the west coast except for Uncle Chuck going in the Travers. So the one thing you do have going into this Derby is that you are going to see which region has the best horses. Everybody is just under the impression that Tiz The Law has been beating up on decent competition. But maybe the horses that Art Collector beat on Sunday at Ellis Park are better than the ones that Tiz The Law beat on Saturday.”
TONY ZHOU
“I think the undercard is where it’s at. Everyone spends all their time on the Derby and forgets about the rest. They spend hours and hours to analyze the Derby, and then they spend two minutes on the other races. Where it gets sloppy is the undercard. If I were to bet horizontally, it would probably be a Pick 6, because the pools are big and juicy. But aside from just wanting some action on a big pool in the Derby, I would tend to just avoid the race. Money is as green in the Derby as it is in the first maiden special weight on the card. I don’t care what race it comes from. I’m not going to force my action just because it’s the Derby. If it’s a terrible race and I have no opinion, I just won’t put much money into it. I may bet just because it’s the Derby and because it’s fun, but I’m not going to put any significant amount into it. It’s a great race for the sport. But it’s like the fan vs. gambler mentality.”
JUDY WAGNER
“My biggest excitement about the Derby is the fact that Churchill Downs is allowing a 10-cent superfecta this year. In the past you could only get a $1 superfecta. If there’s somebody I really like I key him. But when you get that many horses you can’t always do that. The biggest superfecta that I ever played in the Derby (in 2009) I had to completely rule out five or six horses. One of the horses was Mine That Bird. Needless to say you know what happened to me. That kind of cooked me on those $1 superfectas. But I think I will get a lot more interested with the 10-cent superfecta. They’re having 50-cent trifectas, too, which is nice, because you have some good opportunities to make money. I’m a serious handicapper, but I’m not a huge bettor, and I have a budget. If my budget doesn’t spread to all the races on the card, it doesn’t spread. Definitely there’s value to be had in the Derby. I still think you get good value if you can get past a prohibitive favorite like Tiz The Law.”
TONY ZHOU
“I don’t know how I will bet until literally the day before. I see how the pools move the day of. On a normal day in a normal Grade 1, I normally don’t know the names of the horses until the day before. Then I ask myself, first of all, if it’s even worth a bet. Number two, is there an opportunity to be had? Meaning I think if the public is missing something on the horse or the situation it’ll be highlighted. The next day, once I see how the odds flow, then I make the decision whether it’s worthwhile putting in a bet or not. I see what I see in the pools, and that’s when I make my decision. It’s like just like any other day actually.”
JONATHON KINCHEN
“I am a speed-figure guy through and through. Tiz The Law’s best (Beyer), which is much better than Art Collector’s or Honor A. P.’s or Thousand Words’s, was earned a mile-and-a-quarter. Even if the other three make a big improvement off of their figure when they get to the mile-and-a-quarter, it’s going to be Tiz The Law’s second time. I already know he can do it. and he did it geared down. If Honor A. P. couldn’t beat Thousand Words, he ain’t beating Tiz The Law.”
DAVID GUTFREUND
“Just a random thought on Tiz The Law. He’s had absolutely everything his own way in 2020. He has run out of his own stall, in short fields and gotten dreamy trips. The Derby is going to be 15, 16, 18, 20 horses. It’s on a track where he already flopped. The jockey (Manny Franco) is going to be under severe pressure; he has sometimes dropped the ball at the Saratoga meeting. The horses never run back on only four weeks’ rest. I do think there’s a lot of question marks around Tiz The Law. He hasn’t faced anybody like Art Collector or Honor A. P. or Thousand Words. He’s had pushover fields in the Belmont and the Travers, which were the Belmont and the Travers in name only. I’d be inclined to play against Tiz The Law. I have no idea with who, though.”
JONATHON KINCHEN
“It’s Kentucky Derby day. Since Giacomo and since Mine That Bird, a lot of people think that any horse can win the Derby. I’m actually different than that. I think every year there’s just a handful of horses that can win the Derby. It has become very formal for various reasons. I just don’t see how they’re going to beat him.” Related Pages Top Stories The weather broke kindly for a change Tuesday in A... While most eyes were on the 3-year-olds the last f... Helium (Ironicus - Thundering Emilia, by Thunder G... It will be a relatively quiet weekend on the 2021... Kenny McPeek had a very good year with fillies las...
The thing that makes the Kentucky Derby great is that you never know exactly how the race is going to unfold over 1 1/4-miles at Churchill Downs, with 18 horses expected to be loaded into the starting game on Saturday.© Seth Wenig, AP Tiz the Law (8), with jockey Manny Franco up, crosses the finish line to win the 152nd running of the Belmont Stakes horse race in Elmont, N.Y.
But what are the odds that the top three choices in the morning line odds would end up drawing the three outside post positions.
That means favored Tiz the Law (saddle No. 17), second choice Honor A.P (16) and speedster Authentic (18) could have their fate determined over the first two furlongs, as field barrells towards the first turn.
The Kentucky Derby will be broadcast live on NBC from 2:30-7:30 p.m., with post time set for 6:50 p.m.
Related: Kentucky Derby post positions, morning line, info
Here are the selections from our expert panel:
2020 Kentucky Derby Field
Horse (Jockey) morning line
1. Finnick the Fierce (Garcia) 50-1
2. Max Player (Santana) 30-1
3. Enforceable (Beschizza) 30-1
4. Storm the Court (Leparoux) 50-1
5. Major Fed (Graham) 50-1
6. King Guillermo (Camacho) scratched
7. Money Moves (Castellano) 30-1
8. South Bend (Gaffalione) 50-1
9. Mr. Big News (G.Saez) 50-1
10. Thousand Words (Geroux) 15-1
11. Necker Island (Mena) 50-1
12. Sole Volante (Panici) 30-1
13. Attachment Rate (Talamo) 50-1
14. Winning Impression (Rocco Jr.) 50-1
15. Ny Traffic (Lopez) 20-1
16. Honor A.P. (Smith) 5-1
17. Tiz the Law (Franco) 3/5
18. Authentic (Velazquez) 8-1
Sean Nolan (15-time National Horseplayers Championship qualifier, 2001 runnerup, four Top 20 finishes)
1. Tiz the Law: No value here as the odds-on favorite but there is no legitimate reason to pick against him. He drew the 17 post (now post 16 with scratch of King Guillermo), which will give Manny Franco the option to pick what flight he wants to be in when they hit the first turn. The classy colt should be able to relax outside the speed and expect him to open up as the field turns for home. On to the Preakness and Breeder’s Cup Classic!
2. Thousand Words: Really coming into his own now and his loping stride should help him negotiate the 1¼ miles without much problem. Baffert knows how to prepare them for the big races. Expect Geroux will put him in the race right off the bat. Offers some value with a Tiz the Law exacta.
3. Ny Traffic: Has the knack to get involved early and hang around. He has a series of 5 furlong works that says he is still on edge and he likes the Churchill Downs oval. A logical exotics play.
4. Necker Island is my choice of several plodders to pick up the pieces. Taking the blinkers off should help him relax and get the extra 1/8 of a mile.
Bob Jordan, USA TODAY NETWORK Atlantic Group Sports Deputy Director
1. Authentic: Won the Haskell at Monmouth Park but it didn’t feel like a win. He was up by 2 1/2 lengths passing the furlong pole but jockey Mike Smith had to frantically urge Authentic after letting him breeze to deep stretch. Smith, who said Authentic “sees things” and was distracted by shadows, has landed on another mount here but that’s due to a prior agreement so shouldn’t be seen as a lack of endorsement. All said, this is a pretty good horse with a ridiculous post draw who’s going to be in the range of 15-1 odds. He had his final workout Sunday - covering six furlongs in 1:12.40 at Del Mar - and trainer Bob Baffert said, “Authentic is really doing well. I see him turning the corner.”
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2. Max Player: This is the horse that was taken away from trainer Linda Rice and turned over to Steve Asmussen, despite running third in both the Belmont Stakes and Travers, and despite Asmussen having an 0 for 20 record in the Run for the Roses. To be truthful Max Player at no point in either the Belmont or Travers looked like a winner but he just keeps plugging away, a trait that is good to have in the Derby.
3. Tiz the Law: America’s horse will be one of the heaviest Derby favorites in years but has rarely faced adversity, the exception being on this racetrack when he finished out his 2019 season in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. That didn’t go well. On sloppy footing, Tiz the Law failed to accelerate after being trapped briefly in a pocket position. Reasonable to take a stand against the Belmont Stakes winner in the return visit to Churchill.
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Steve Edelson, USA TODAY NETWORK New Jersey sports columnist/racing writer
1. Tiz the Law: The late defection of Art Collector, expected to be the second choice, is big for Tiz the Law. Art Collector was a legitimate threat here. With 103 and 102 Beyer Speed Figures over the last two wins, Art Collector could have been there at the wire if Tiz the Law had a troubled trip. Now Tiz the Law, with a dazzling 109 Beyer in the Travers, has one less top contender to deal with. The formula has been the same all year: Sit just off the speed and then take over with a powerful late run. He’ll have to break well, however, from the wide post if he wants to be the first ever to win from that post position.
2. Authentic: Look for the plan to be the same with John Velazquez in the saddle as it was when Mike Smith rode in the Haskell. If Authentic can get to the front, and they will be forced to go by the far outside post position, they’ll try to go wire-to-wire. That worked at nine furlongs, but likely won’t at 10 furlongs. Authentic will dig in gamely, but won’t be able to hold off Tiz the Law.
3. Max Player: So who gets up for third to complete the trifecta? In the Belmont Stakes and the Travers Stakes it was Max Player, who will once again be charging from the back of the field. Gives a great effort every time, never worse than third in five career starts. Goes from Linda Rice’s barn to Steve Asmussen’s for the Derby.
Steven Falk, Asbury Park Press Sports Writer.
1. Honor A.P.: A horse who should love the 1 1/4 mile distance. He has been working very well at Del Mar with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith aboard for his last three works. He was very impressive in pulling away from Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby on June 6 and earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He was defeated at 1-5 in the Shared Belief at Del Mar on Aug. 1, but that had all the makings of a horse who was not fully cranked and was prepping for this. Yet, he still earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure even though he clearly only ran in spots. It was a means to an end.
2. Tiz The Law: If he runs anything close to the 109 Beyer Speed Figure he put up in demolishing the field in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 8, the rest of this field is running for second. That Beyer Speed Figure would make him tough in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is 3-5 on the morning line because he has clearly shown he is the best horse among this group. However, the best horse does not always win, and if he drops a few points on the Beyer, maybe he is vulnerable. Nobody should leave him off any exacta, trifecta, superfecta or multi-race tickets.
3. Max Player:I hope we get something close to 30-1 on the morning line so the trifecta can be spiced up a little bit. But, I doubt, we will get that price. Even 20-1 will be nice. This grinder is the type of horse who hits the board in the Derby a lot at a decent number. His Beyer Speed Figures have gone up every time. Another forward move gets him on the board.
Greg Giombarrese, Lakewood BlueClaws Director of Communications
1. Honor A.P.: If someone is to upset Tiz the Law, they are going to have to move forward on Saturday and Honor AP can do that as he stretches out to 10 furlongs for the first time. He will relish the added distance of this race, stretching out from a 8.5 furlong prep at Del Mar which was purely a tune-up and in which he was against the race flow. He ran very well, matching his best speed figure earned in the Santa Anita Derby two-back in which he punched his ticket to this spot. He’s sitting on a career-best race, and if Tiz the Law doesn’t replicate his dominant Travers, Honor AP can beat him at a fair price.
2. Tiz the Law: He will be a heavy favorite, and deserves to be, after a romp in the Travers in which he earned a field-best 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He fires every time, has a dominant win at the distance, and comes from a barn that won this race with a fellow NY-bred, Funny Cide, 17 years ago. He’ll also be one of the shortest priced Derby favorites in history and while he is the horse to beat, Honor AP can beat him, though we’re not sure anyone else in here can. Can I Bet On The Kentucky Derby The Day Before
3. Enforceable: He’s been caught in a series of races where the race flows made it tough to make up ground. The top two in his last race are better than anyone in here outside of the top two, and he stretches out to 10 furlongs, which should help him. He can hit the board at a big price.
Ken Jordan (five times among top finishers at NTRA/National Horseplayers Championship, four Top 10s at Horseplayers World Series)
1.Tiz the Law: The most-accomplished runner in here and a well-deserved favorite (though unbettable in the win pool at 3/5). His Travers gave the impression that there is still more to give. All of the racing world hoping he is the last Derby starter to come into the race off a win at 1 1/4 miles.
2. Authentic: It seems everyone is convinced that his Haskell stretch jog will prevent him from winning Derby. Respect his speed and connections.
3. Attachment Rate: Longshot has flashed talent that has been effectively hidden by overconfident rides, traffic, and wide trips. A must use in all exotic slots.
4. NY Tr
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*Can You Bet On The Kentucky Derby The Day Before
*Can I Bet On The Kentucky Derby The Day Before
It is the most basic question now that will not change much in the three weeks left until the Kentucky Derby. But the answer may be as capricious as a swirling wind.
Once you have decided on an online betting platform, it is time to make a wager on the Kentucky Derby. You will decide when to place the bet; just make sure it is before the window closes. Since the Kentucky Derby has the odds posted way in advance, you can wager in advance as well. However, the odds can change a lot by the time the race runs. You might be looking for a day out on the town with the big crowds wishing to watch the Kentucky Derby, in which case going out to bet on the race might be the choice for you. But for convenience’s sake, it’s hard to top betting online. The choices you have at your fingertips mean that you can get the best value for the.
How would you bet the Derby right now?
Not knowing whether the field will fill and with what horses and with jockeys trying to figure out how they are coming and going, it is not a fair question.
Nevertheless, HRN posed it to some well-known horseplayers who will be seen in a series of stories delivering their insights on betting this unique running of America’s biggest race. Although they spoke in separate telephone conversations, their comments have been grouped where they crossed common ground.
If there was a feeling that Jonathon Kinchen, Judy Wagner, Tony Zhou and David Gutfreund shared, it was not just that it was too soon for a concrete opinion. It was that they have some basic strategy in mind that are the foundation of how they will place their bets Saturday, Sept. 5.
Of course, they all took into account the heavy favorite Tiz The Law.
JONATHON KINCHEN
Winner of the 2015 NHC Tour
Double finalist in the 2016 NHC
Fox Sports/NYRA, Austin, Texas
“I’m different than the casual fan. When I go to sleep on the first Saturday in September, if Tiz The Law wins and I walk away a loser, I can handle that. A lot of people want to see the ball go through the hoop on Derby day. With that said I’m not necessarily going to bet a lot of other horses to win the Derby. What I want to do is something that most people can’t stomach doing with the Kentucky Derby because it’s a 20-horse field. That is to single Tiz The Law in multi-race bets and use other opinions in the surrounding races. If he wins and I lose money, I’m OK with that from a fan standpoint. That’s fine. That’s how I’m going to bet the race. I have not seen anyone with a bad trip, with going a mile-and-a-quarter, with a hidden pedigree, with anything that makes me believe that they can turn the tables on what I saw here (at Saratoga) on Saturday from Tiz The Law.”
TONY ZHOU
Five times in National Horseplayers Championship
Analytics player, professional quantitative analyst
New York
“The Derby is probably going to have one of the most solid lines out there. It’s kind of like the Super Bowl. Everyone is analyzing lines and players. All that money whips the market into shape unless you have some public darling horse. Typically with that much money flowing into the pool, the lines are going to be pretty solid. I never view the Kentucky Derby as a great betting proposition. But it’s just a great race to watch.”
JUDY WAGNER
Winner of the 2001 NHC
Member of the Louisiana Racing Commission
New Orleans
“I feel this year’s 3-year-old crop overall is not as strong, but that may be because I can’t tell you four or five 3-year-olds that I feel I’m excited about for the Derby. I loved seeing Tiz The Law. I really was concerned about him when they turned for home last week in the Travers. But all doubt was removed very quickly, especially by the sixteenth pole.”
DAVID GUTFREUND
Winner of the 2018 NHC Tour
15-time NHC player
Las Vegas
“The Derby is a unique race unto itself because the field size. You just don’t get that in any other races. The one thing about the Derby this year is the Kentucky horses all ran at Ellis Park last week. The New York horses ran in the Belmont and the Travers. For the most part the west-coast horses have stayed out on the west coast except for Uncle Chuck going in the Travers. So the one thing you do have going into this Derby is that you are going to see which region has the best horses. Everybody is just under the impression that Tiz The Law has been beating up on decent competition. But maybe the horses that Art Collector beat on Sunday at Ellis Park are better than the ones that Tiz The Law beat on Saturday.”
TONY ZHOU
“I think the undercard is where it’s at. Everyone spends all their time on the Derby and forgets about the rest. They spend hours and hours to analyze the Derby, and then they spend two minutes on the other races. Where it gets sloppy is the undercard. If I were to bet horizontally, it would probably be a Pick 6, because the pools are big and juicy. But aside from just wanting some action on a big pool in the Derby, I would tend to just avoid the race. Money is as green in the Derby as it is in the first maiden special weight on the card. I don’t care what race it comes from. I’m not going to force my action just because it’s the Derby. If it’s a terrible race and I have no opinion, I just won’t put much money into it. I may bet just because it’s the Derby and because it’s fun, but I’m not going to put any significant amount into it. It’s a great race for the sport. But it’s like the fan vs. gambler mentality.”
JUDY WAGNER
“My biggest excitement about the Derby is the fact that Churchill Downs is allowing a 10-cent superfecta this year. In the past you could only get a $1 superfecta. If there’s somebody I really like I key him. But when you get that many horses you can’t always do that. The biggest superfecta that I ever played in the Derby (in 2009) I had to completely rule out five or six horses. One of the horses was Mine That Bird. Needless to say you know what happened to me. That kind of cooked me on those $1 superfectas. But I think I will get a lot more interested with the 10-cent superfecta. They’re having 50-cent trifectas, too, which is nice, because you have some good opportunities to make money. I’m a serious handicapper, but I’m not a huge bettor, and I have a budget. If my budget doesn’t spread to all the races on the card, it doesn’t spread. Definitely there’s value to be had in the Derby. I still think you get good value if you can get past a prohibitive favorite like Tiz The Law.”
TONY ZHOU
“I don’t know how I will bet until literally the day before. I see how the pools move the day of. On a normal day in a normal Grade 1, I normally don’t know the names of the horses until the day before. Then I ask myself, first of all, if it’s even worth a bet. Number two, is there an opportunity to be had? Meaning I think if the public is missing something on the horse or the situation it’ll be highlighted. The next day, once I see how the odds flow, then I make the decision whether it’s worthwhile putting in a bet or not. I see what I see in the pools, and that’s when I make my decision. It’s like just like any other day actually.”
JONATHON KINCHEN
“I am a speed-figure guy through and through. Tiz The Law’s best (Beyer), which is much better than Art Collector’s or Honor A. P.’s or Thousand Words’s, was earned a mile-and-a-quarter. Even if the other three make a big improvement off of their figure when they get to the mile-and-a-quarter, it’s going to be Tiz The Law’s second time. I already know he can do it. and he did it geared down. If Honor A. P. couldn’t beat Thousand Words, he ain’t beating Tiz The Law.”
DAVID GUTFREUND
“Just a random thought on Tiz The Law. He’s had absolutely everything his own way in 2020. He has run out of his own stall, in short fields and gotten dreamy trips. The Derby is going to be 15, 16, 18, 20 horses. It’s on a track where he already flopped. The jockey (Manny Franco) is going to be under severe pressure; he has sometimes dropped the ball at the Saratoga meeting. The horses never run back on only four weeks’ rest. I do think there’s a lot of question marks around Tiz The Law. He hasn’t faced anybody like Art Collector or Honor A. P. or Thousand Words. He’s had pushover fields in the Belmont and the Travers, which were the Belmont and the Travers in name only. I’d be inclined to play against Tiz The Law. I have no idea with who, though.”
JONATHON KINCHEN
“It’s Kentucky Derby day. Since Giacomo and since Mine That Bird, a lot of people think that any horse can win the Derby. I’m actually different than that. I think every year there’s just a handful of horses that can win the Derby. It has become very formal for various reasons. I just don’t see how they’re going to beat him.” Related Pages Top Stories The weather broke kindly for a change Tuesday in A... While most eyes were on the 3-year-olds the last f... Helium (Ironicus - Thundering Emilia, by Thunder G... It will be a relatively quiet weekend on the 2021... Kenny McPeek had a very good year with fillies las...
The thing that makes the Kentucky Derby great is that you never know exactly how the race is going to unfold over 1 1/4-miles at Churchill Downs, with 18 horses expected to be loaded into the starting game on Saturday.© Seth Wenig, AP Tiz the Law (8), with jockey Manny Franco up, crosses the finish line to win the 152nd running of the Belmont Stakes horse race in Elmont, N.Y.
But what are the odds that the top three choices in the morning line odds would end up drawing the three outside post positions.
That means favored Tiz the Law (saddle No. 17), second choice Honor A.P (16) and speedster Authentic (18) could have their fate determined over the first two furlongs, as field barrells towards the first turn.
The Kentucky Derby will be broadcast live on NBC from 2:30-7:30 p.m., with post time set for 6:50 p.m.
Related: Kentucky Derby post positions, morning line, info
Here are the selections from our expert panel:
2020 Kentucky Derby Field
Horse (Jockey) morning line
1. Finnick the Fierce (Garcia) 50-1
2. Max Player (Santana) 30-1
3. Enforceable (Beschizza) 30-1
4. Storm the Court (Leparoux) 50-1
5. Major Fed (Graham) 50-1
6. King Guillermo (Camacho) scratched
7. Money Moves (Castellano) 30-1
8. South Bend (Gaffalione) 50-1
9. Mr. Big News (G.Saez) 50-1
10. Thousand Words (Geroux) 15-1
11. Necker Island (Mena) 50-1
12. Sole Volante (Panici) 30-1
13. Attachment Rate (Talamo) 50-1
14. Winning Impression (Rocco Jr.) 50-1
15. Ny Traffic (Lopez) 20-1
16. Honor A.P. (Smith) 5-1
17. Tiz the Law (Franco) 3/5
18. Authentic (Velazquez) 8-1
Sean Nolan (15-time National Horseplayers Championship qualifier, 2001 runnerup, four Top 20 finishes)
1. Tiz the Law: No value here as the odds-on favorite but there is no legitimate reason to pick against him. He drew the 17 post (now post 16 with scratch of King Guillermo), which will give Manny Franco the option to pick what flight he wants to be in when they hit the first turn. The classy colt should be able to relax outside the speed and expect him to open up as the field turns for home. On to the Preakness and Breeder’s Cup Classic!
2. Thousand Words: Really coming into his own now and his loping stride should help him negotiate the 1¼ miles without much problem. Baffert knows how to prepare them for the big races. Expect Geroux will put him in the race right off the bat. Offers some value with a Tiz the Law exacta.
3. Ny Traffic: Has the knack to get involved early and hang around. He has a series of 5 furlong works that says he is still on edge and he likes the Churchill Downs oval. A logical exotics play.
4. Necker Island is my choice of several plodders to pick up the pieces. Taking the blinkers off should help him relax and get the extra 1/8 of a mile.
Bob Jordan, USA TODAY NETWORK Atlantic Group Sports Deputy Director
1. Authentic: Won the Haskell at Monmouth Park but it didn’t feel like a win. He was up by 2 1/2 lengths passing the furlong pole but jockey Mike Smith had to frantically urge Authentic after letting him breeze to deep stretch. Smith, who said Authentic “sees things” and was distracted by shadows, has landed on another mount here but that’s due to a prior agreement so shouldn’t be seen as a lack of endorsement. All said, this is a pretty good horse with a ridiculous post draw who’s going to be in the range of 15-1 odds. He had his final workout Sunday - covering six furlongs in 1:12.40 at Del Mar - and trainer Bob Baffert said, “Authentic is really doing well. I see him turning the corner.”
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2. Max Player: This is the horse that was taken away from trainer Linda Rice and turned over to Steve Asmussen, despite running third in both the Belmont Stakes and Travers, and despite Asmussen having an 0 for 20 record in the Run for the Roses. To be truthful Max Player at no point in either the Belmont or Travers looked like a winner but he just keeps plugging away, a trait that is good to have in the Derby.
3. Tiz the Law: America’s horse will be one of the heaviest Derby favorites in years but has rarely faced adversity, the exception being on this racetrack when he finished out his 2019 season in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. That didn’t go well. On sloppy footing, Tiz the Law failed to accelerate after being trapped briefly in a pocket position. Reasonable to take a stand against the Belmont Stakes winner in the return visit to Churchill.
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Steve Edelson, USA TODAY NETWORK New Jersey sports columnist/racing writer
1. Tiz the Law: The late defection of Art Collector, expected to be the second choice, is big for Tiz the Law. Art Collector was a legitimate threat here. With 103 and 102 Beyer Speed Figures over the last two wins, Art Collector could have been there at the wire if Tiz the Law had a troubled trip. Now Tiz the Law, with a dazzling 109 Beyer in the Travers, has one less top contender to deal with. The formula has been the same all year: Sit just off the speed and then take over with a powerful late run. He’ll have to break well, however, from the wide post if he wants to be the first ever to win from that post position.
2. Authentic: Look for the plan to be the same with John Velazquez in the saddle as it was when Mike Smith rode in the Haskell. If Authentic can get to the front, and they will be forced to go by the far outside post position, they’ll try to go wire-to-wire. That worked at nine furlongs, but likely won’t at 10 furlongs. Authentic will dig in gamely, but won’t be able to hold off Tiz the Law.
3. Max Player: So who gets up for third to complete the trifecta? In the Belmont Stakes and the Travers Stakes it was Max Player, who will once again be charging from the back of the field. Gives a great effort every time, never worse than third in five career starts. Goes from Linda Rice’s barn to Steve Asmussen’s for the Derby.
Steven Falk, Asbury Park Press Sports Writer.
1. Honor A.P.: A horse who should love the 1 1/4 mile distance. He has been working very well at Del Mar with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith aboard for his last three works. He was very impressive in pulling away from Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby on June 6 and earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. He was defeated at 1-5 in the Shared Belief at Del Mar on Aug. 1, but that had all the makings of a horse who was not fully cranked and was prepping for this. Yet, he still earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure even though he clearly only ran in spots. It was a means to an end.
2. Tiz The Law: If he runs anything close to the 109 Beyer Speed Figure he put up in demolishing the field in the Travers Stakes at Saratoga on Aug. 8, the rest of this field is running for second. That Beyer Speed Figure would make him tough in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He is 3-5 on the morning line because he has clearly shown he is the best horse among this group. However, the best horse does not always win, and if he drops a few points on the Beyer, maybe he is vulnerable. Nobody should leave him off any exacta, trifecta, superfecta or multi-race tickets.
3. Max Player:I hope we get something close to 30-1 on the morning line so the trifecta can be spiced up a little bit. But, I doubt, we will get that price. Even 20-1 will be nice. This grinder is the type of horse who hits the board in the Derby a lot at a decent number. His Beyer Speed Figures have gone up every time. Another forward move gets him on the board.
Greg Giombarrese, Lakewood BlueClaws Director of Communications
1. Honor A.P.: If someone is to upset Tiz the Law, they are going to have to move forward on Saturday and Honor AP can do that as he stretches out to 10 furlongs for the first time. He will relish the added distance of this race, stretching out from a 8.5 furlong prep at Del Mar which was purely a tune-up and in which he was against the race flow. He ran very well, matching his best speed figure earned in the Santa Anita Derby two-back in which he punched his ticket to this spot. He’s sitting on a career-best race, and if Tiz the Law doesn’t replicate his dominant Travers, Honor AP can beat him at a fair price.
2. Tiz the Law: He will be a heavy favorite, and deserves to be, after a romp in the Travers in which he earned a field-best 109 Beyer Speed Figure. He fires every time, has a dominant win at the distance, and comes from a barn that won this race with a fellow NY-bred, Funny Cide, 17 years ago. He’ll also be one of the shortest priced Derby favorites in history and while he is the horse to beat, Honor AP can beat him, though we’re not sure anyone else in here can. Can I Bet On The Kentucky Derby The Day Before
3. Enforceable: He’s been caught in a series of races where the race flows made it tough to make up ground. The top two in his last race are better than anyone in here outside of the top two, and he stretches out to 10 furlongs, which should help him. He can hit the board at a big price.
Ken Jordan (five times among top finishers at NTRA/National Horseplayers Championship, four Top 10s at Horseplayers World Series)
1.Tiz the Law: The most-accomplished runner in here and a well-deserved favorite (though unbettable in the win pool at 3/5). His Travers gave the impression that there is still more to give. All of the racing world hoping he is the last Derby starter to come into the race off a win at 1 1/4 miles.
2. Authentic: It seems everyone is convinced that his Haskell stretch jog will prevent him from winning Derby. Respect his speed and connections.
3. Attachment Rate: Longshot has flashed talent that has been effectively hidden by overconfident rides, traffic, and wide trips. A must use in all exotic slots.
4. NY Tr
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